Purchasing in 2026 – Geopolitical upheaval: 7 levers to leverage the new world order to your advantage
- Erik Esly
- Jan. 21
- 4 min. reading time
Updated: 1 day ago
One thing is certain: the 2000s are not coming back — and the "golden years" of virtually limitless globalization are over.
What has already begun to emerge in recent years will have an even greater impact in 2026 . Geopolitical tensions, the use of tariffs as a means of pressure, and export controls on important raw materials now determine everyday life
in many purchasing and supply chain organizations.
Anyone who still hopes that "everything will go back to the way it was" are underestimating the new reality: Geopolitical upheaval is increasingly manifesting itself in the form of fragmented global trade, in which political decisions can change supply chains overnight.
Most experts predict that this trend will become even more pronounced in the next 5–10 years.
Example: US tariffs on European and international industrial goods reached up to 50% in individual sectors in 2025, particularly for steel and aluminum, while from 2026 onwards
The EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) levies CO₂ costs on imports – putting double pressure on international supply chains.
The message is simple: for those responsible for purchasing and supply chains, inaction is now the greatest risk — especially for parts and components that are critical to production and sales.
Geopolitical upheaval: The new world order and the multi-nodal trade patchwork
Instead of a fairly uniform global trading system, as has been the case up to now, a new structure is emerging—whether you call it "multi-nodal trade patchwork," "geo-economic blocs," or "fragmented globalization" is secondary.
The result remains the same: several large trade hubs, each with their own rules, customs duties, and political priorities.
The US is focusing on economic security and domestic production, China is also prioritizing the production of critical technologies and components within its own borders, and the BRICS countries are establishing alternative structures.
The EU is trying to preserving rules-based trade, while emerging economies such as Mexico, Argentina, and Morocco are prioritizing their sovereignty and industrialization.
For purchasing and supply chain teams, this means that there is no longer "the" global market—each region, and in some cases even individual countries within a region, bring their own risks but also new opportunities to the negotiating table.
Cumulative stress: When politics, markets, and tariffs interact
The current situation is not the result of a single crisis, but rather expression of a lasting structural break: the consequences of the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, technological dependencies, and trade and customs policies increasingly used as instruments of power politics are all intertwined.
The World Economic Forum speaks of an era of "structural volatility" – short-term disruptions in supply chains are therefore no longer the exception, but the
new normal.
Example: Critical raw materials – export controls as a geopolitical weapon
Since 2023/24, China has tightened export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite, and various rare earths—materials that are essential for semiconductors, electronics, defense technology, and the energy transition.
Even the announcement of such measures leads to planning uncertainty, longer approval processes, price jumps, and the search for alternative sources of supply.
For European value chains, this makes it clear that political decisions in third countries can suddenly become a bottleneck factor in their own supply chain.
What does all this mean for purchasing in 2026, and what countermeasures can be taken?
Production-critical parts or raw materials from geopolitically sensitive regions are 2026
No longer purely an operational risk—they are a direct threat to revenue and margins.
The key difference compared to the past is that the speed of escalation has changed dramatically: tariffs can jump by 20–50% within a few hours, sanctions come into force at short notice, and export controls are imposed without sufficient warning.
The core problem: Many companies still base their supply chains on the assumption that the geopolitical and regulatory environment is relatively stable—or changes only slowly.
Under the current conditions, this is an expensive illusion. The costly consequences only become apparent when it is too late: production downtime, customer losses, contractual penalties.
How purchasing and supply chain teams can respond to geopolitical upheaval:
3 - Specific diagnostic questions:
Single source and single region: Which production-critical parts or raw materials are dependent on a single source or geographical region? (Example: 100% Taiwanese semiconductors, Chinese rare earths)
Reaction time under shock: If a 40% tariff is imposed tomorrow or an export ban is enacted, how long will it take to find alternative sources of supply, and how long will stocks last until production is halted? What is the minimum bridging period with existing stocks?
Investment scenario analysis: What does it cost to develop and qualify alternative sources? And what, on the other hand, does a week of production downtime cost?
4 - Active Strategic Countermeasures:
Geographic multi-source strategy – moving away from single sourcing:
Production-critical parts and raw materials from geopolitically sensitive regions often require geographical diversification. Specifically: identification of all single-source and single-region dependencies, plus parallel market research and qualification of at least 2–3 alternative geographical suppliers.
Technical substitution and material flexibility – decoupling through innovation
Diversify not only geographically, but also technically: component designs with substitution options, alternative materials, or manufacturing processes that serve the same purpose without product redesign.
Utilize trade agreements and regionalization windows:
New trade agreements (e.g., MERCOSUR) open up previously irrelevant sourcing opportunities with significantly reduced tariffs and new supplier clusters.
Operational resilience measures – safety stocks as a buffer:
In parallel with diversification, intelligently dimension the safety stock (not too much = holding costs increase, not too little = shortage risk). Segmentation according to criticality and procurement risk helps here to make conscious decisions about where stocks are necessary as a strategic buffer.
Role of Purchasing & Supply Chain in 2026
The logic of largely uninterrupted global trade will be a thing of the past by 2026—instead, political, regulatory, and technological disruptions will shape the environment in which we operate.
For companies, this means that The decisive factor is no longerwhether disruptions occur, but how well you are prepared for them and how quickly they respond to them.
In the Tacto webinar on January 14, 2026, we explored the diagnostic questions and countermeasures outlined here in greater depth using practical examples.
On the geopolitical chessboard, purchasing and supply chain can no longer just react and put out fires. Now it's time to take the initiative, act even more intelligently, and contribute to the long-term success of the company.
This is precisely where we support medium-sized companies and private equity firms — from rapid risk diagnosis to the implementation of robust purchasing and supply chain setups that aim to be as successful as possible even under changing conditions.
Comments